Short-term Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance
Review of Financial Studies 18, p.569-597, 2005

Nicolas P.B. Bollen and Jeffrey A. Busse

We estimate parameters of standard stock selection and market timing models using daily mutual fund returns and quarterly measurement periods. We then rank funds quarterly by abnormal return, and measure the performance of each decile the following quarter. The average abnormal return of the top decile in the post-ranking quarter is 39 basis points. The post-ranking abnormal return disappears when funds are evaluated over longer periods. These results suggest that superior performance is a short-lived phenomenon that is observable only when funds are evaluated several times a year.